Monday, 08 March 2010

  • 2012 and the Hype Behind the End of the World

    As I lay back on the couch of my hotel room with my laptop on my chest, I watch the movie 2012. I have always been a fan of disaster movies as far back as I can remember. The premises of these movies have varied dramatically over the years but the overall theme remains the same… “The World as We Know it is Ending!”

    During the Cold War, the threat of human extinction centered around nuclear war or World War III. After that it was the threat of an asteroid, comet or rogue celestial body ramming into the Earth. By the turn of the century, the focus turned to our dependence on technology in the form of the “Y2K Bug” or biblical references to dates that seemingly have some numerical significance such as September 9th, 1999. After those dates passed uneventfully, there was talk that the end of the world would be caused by our global climate shifting dramatically and without warning. Now, the attention has turned to an alignment of our solar system with the center of the Milky Way Galaxy or the intercept course of an alien-inhabited planet called Nibiru that the ancient Sumerians worshiped 5000 years ago.

    Sometimes, these doomsday pseudoscientific theories are backed up by loosely interpreted “prophecies” from familiar names such as Nostradamus, and Leonardo da Vinci or taken from excerpts directly from the Bible itself to “predict” our inevitable apocalypse. Who hasn’t driven along on their daily commute and come across a street sign in front of a church that reads, “Jesus is coming, prepare yourself,” or “The End is Near!” or something to that effect? I suppose those “prophecies” are true since there is no firm date attached. Perhaps “Jesus is coming back on March 8th, 2011 at 11:32am Pacific Standard Time” doesn’t have the same ring to it.

    Christianity and 16th century mysticism are not alone however. Virtually every civilization throughout human history has had its own take on “The End.” It makes enough sense when you think about it. If everything has a beginning, then there must be an end, right? The obvious answer to that is yes, one day, it is an absolute certainty that the planet Earth will be burned to a cinder some 5 billion years from now when our sun, having spent all of its hydrogen fuel, will bloat to a Red Giant before collapsing in on itself and becoming a cold, dead, star. But this is a certainty that we have only had the ability to understand within the last 60 years. So what about this latest, impending doom that is receiving so much attention?

    In the movie, 2012, John Cusack can be seen narrowly escaping one natural disaster after another with his family in tow. He’s guided along the way by a hippie, conspiracy-theorist named Charlie that is brilliantly played by Woody Harrelson. His chance-encounter with Charlie enlightens him about the impending apocalypse, the government cover-up to hide this inevitability from the world, and how to save his family! How cool is that? The captivating story, sheer magnitude of the global annihilation and the special effects of this movie make The Day After Tomorrow look like a mild, snow flurry.

    So is there any truth to this? Is this just another entertaining story? What will really happen on December 21st, 2012? To provide a fair assessment, I will take all of the basic foundations of the movie and then discuss, however briefly, a few of the more “radical” 2012 ideas most of which honestly, warrant very little real attention.

    The basic premise behind the significance of the movie 2012 (and the current 2012 hysteria) is that of the Mayan calendar dating back to the 6th century B.C., which is comprised of 3 major parts. The first of which is the Tzolkin which centers around a 200 day time period. This cycle was later modified to better coincide with the celestial movements of the heavens to 365 days, which was called the Haab. This calendar really reflected the mathematical skill of the Mayans in conjunction with their astronomical observation. Another testament to Mayan mathematics was their numbering system which was based around the numbers 20 and 12. After it was found out that they needed to establish a yet, larger calendar, the long count was devised.

    The long count is a system comprising of a linear system with the intent of being able to accurately describe a period of time well into the past as well as the future. When converted to our present (GMT) calendar, the beginning date is August 11th 3114 B.C. and the calendar begins again on December 21, 2012. It should be noted that at no point does it indicate that the world will “end” anywhere around that time in Mayan literature. Like a clock, a calendar is nothing more than a tool, based on the position of the Earth, relative to the sun and visible stars, to measure a period of time. Since the rotation of the Earth and the orbits of the planets in our solar system are constant and cyclical, when a previous cycle completes, a new one starts following the same path as the previous. Our entire concept of time is based on past cycles and the knowledge that a new cycle will simply start when the previous ends.

    As was greatly exaggerated in the movie, the commonly circulated cause for our impending destruction is that a planetary alignment of our planet, with Jupiter, Saturn, Venus, Mercury, the sun, and the center of our galaxy along the plane of rotation. The combined gravitational forces of the planets and the center of the galaxy will greatly increase the solar activity within the sun resulting in colossal solar flares that will “cook” the Earth’s core, destabilize our protective magnetic field, and cause massive tectonic destabilization resulting in earthquakes, tsunamis, and global flooding that will completely reshape our planet wiping out the unsuspecting human race in the process.

    For those who have taken any introductory astronomy course in college, it’s commonly known that the planets in our solar system “align” themselves fairly regularly. There are plenty of free programs on the Internet that very accurately can depict the position of the planets at any given time or date, past, present and future. These applications are wonderful tools for stargazing, and for amateur astronomers to find the planets with a small telescope from home. Another, more recent, use for these tools is completely debunking the “planetary alignment” that is supposed to destroy the Earth. A quick glance can see that the planets form a nothing that could even be considered a rudimentary line. Also an important thing to remember is that even as little of 1 degree of variance from any vantage point on the Earth can mean millions of miles as close as Mars, and tens of millions with Jupiter. A far cry from the neat, easily seen alignment depicted in the movie.

    The biggest assumption for the damaging consequences of this “alignment” is that the gravitational forces of the planets will combine with that of the Earth effectively making the 11 year solar cycle even worse. Without boring anyone with the math that completely discredits this claim, the gravitational forces exerted on an object are determined by the mass and distance of the offending body. Due to the extreme distances involved in our solar system, for example, the Earth is 95 million miles from the Sun and Jupiter is 342 million miles past the Earth, even a planet as massive as Jupiter has nothing to contribute gravitationally with the Earth. The other planets even less. It’s important to also note that the center of the galaxy is supposed to contribute to this as well but this is no where close to being likely.

    Finally we come to what we know as the Solar Maximum and corresponding Solar Minimum. This is a verifiable phenomenon of the Sun where approximately every 11 years, there are dramatic increases in solar flare activity. These solar flares dispense vast amounts of solar radiation and gamma rays across the solar system. The affects of this solar radiation can be severe for those unlucky enough to be in space but luckily we have the Earth’s magnetic field to protect us and our delicate ecosystem from its harmful effects.

    The significance of this solar cycle according to some is that it is caused by the sun reversing the polarity of its magnetic field and the sudden release in energy results in the sun expelling it into space in the form of massive solar storms. The only problem with this claim is that its made with the assumption that the sun has a magnetic field similar to that of the Earth which it does not. The Earth’s core is comprised mostly of rotating molten iron condensed by the Earth’s gravity. The core of the sun is comprised of hydrogen which under the extreme gravitational forces within the sun gets compressed to the point where helium atoms are created and the resulting reaction turns the sun “on”. Due to these violent nuclear reactions occurring within the Sun, the magnetic field of the sun is equally violent. Because of this, the Sun doesn’t have magnetic poles like the Earth. It has several that are constantly changing.

    While it’s true that solar activity increases during the solar cycles, there is little reason to believe that this next, upcoming cycle will be any different than previous cycles that have been going on every 11 years since the Sun first “turned on”. According to the geological record, in the last 3 billion years, there is no evidence that our sun has ever been responsible for the obliteration of life on Earth. Since that amount of time, our planets and solar system have “aligned” many times with no instantaneous mass extinctions.

    It can be a challenge sometimes to wade through the pseudoscience and half-truths that make up doomsday theories these days. Some theories are easier to spot as baloney than others to your average person. For example, there are people right now that honestly believe that the Sumerians 5000 years ago predicted that a planetary system with the same aliens that genetically engineered the human race is on a collision-course with Earth and will be responsible for the end of the world in 2012. A brief search of the name Nibiru on YouTube will reveal tons of videos with pictures and charts that claim to prove its existence. They even offer (for a nominal fee) survival guides for surviving the coming apocalypse.

    Let’s face it, scaring the general public is big business. Movies, television shows, advertising time being sold by the news stations that command the highest viewership, books, kits, pills and organizational memberships. Most of these are harmless enough. Like I mentioned earlier, I happen to love disaster movies and according to ticket sales, so does much of America. But there are always people that get just a little suckered in by the possibility of something that “could” happen whether it really “could” or not and take things too far. These are the people that cult leaders and scam artists prey on. How many people do you know that started stocking up on supplies in preparation for Y2K or spent money in other ways?

    So in this confusing world where we, as people are fed only the information that is deemed appropriate, sensational, or prudent in the minds of others, how can we figure out the baloney from the facts? I personally find it easy if you remember a simple quote from a childhood hero of mine, Dr. Carl Sagan;

    “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

    So in remembering that concept, enjoy the movies, muse at the hype, snicker at the yahoos that claim aliens are riding their own planet to kill us and sleep at night knowing that December 21st 2012 will be just another pre-Christmas shopping day. These stories surely are entertaining... now where is my popcorn??

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